Economic optimism grows in Uzbekistan, currency devaluation concerns minimized

After several months of decline, the Consumer Confidence Index in Uzbekistan began to grow, Spot writes with reference to the report by Freedom Finance Global.

In July, the index reached 128.4, adding 2.5 points compared to the previous month and 1.6 points compared to the May value. Four out of five sub-indices showed growth, while the last one saw a minimal decline.

The sub-index for favorable conditions for major purchases saw the most significant increase, reaching 88.7 points (+7.7). Positive responses were given by 41.2% of respondents (+3.7%), while the percentage of negative responses decreased by 5%.

In the Andijan region, the share of positive responses increased by more than 10% in a month, reaching a maximum of 46.9%. The lowest result was recorded in the Tashkent region, with 34.5% (-1.3 p.p.).

The sub-index of economic expectations for the coming year also increased. In July, it reached 150.1 points (+2.1), with 61.3% of respondents choosing positive answers, while the share of pessimists decreased to 8.2%.

The highest indicator was recorded in Khorezm (66.9%), and the most significant increase was observed in the Bukhara region (61.7%, +3.4 p.p.). The capital had the fewest optimists, with 51.4%.

Inflation expectations remained close to previous periods. 42.6% (-1.4 p.p.) reported a "very strong" price increase over the year, and 22.7% (+0.5 p.p.) over the month. About a quarter expect inflation to accelerate over the year, and 11.4% over the month.

Most often, respondents noted rising prices in categories such as meat and poultry (45.2%). Utility tariffs, after a surge in June to 50%, dropped to second place (44.8%), with medicines coming in third (23.9%).

Expectations of devaluation among Uzbeks dropped to their lowest level during the survey period. Only 33% of respondents expect the national currency to collapse in the next month, and 53% expect it within a year, which is 16.6% and 21.8% lower than the corresponding figures a year earlier.