Energy prices set to rise in Uzbekistan: Central Bank weighs impact on inflation

Starting next year, electricity prices may rise by 24%, natural gas by 36%, liquefied gas by 25%, and methane gas by 39%. According to Nurmuratov, these adjustments are factored into the bank's inflation forecast. However, he emphasized that fluctuations in energy prices could still affect inflation and lead to modifications in policy.

“We are monitoring the impact of energy resource shortages and any artificial price increases on inflation,” Nurmuratov noted in response to a question from a Kun.uz journalist. He acknowledged that price increases for liquefied gas, for instance, are already impacting inflation and would be closely tracked to manage associated risks. “We categorize these scenarios as high-risk, considering their unpredictability. Should external factors worsen, they may influence our internal economic conditions, forcing us to adjust our decisions accordingly,” he added.

Nurmuratov also discussed the impact of currency depreciation on inflation. “A 1% depreciation in the currency rate could negatively affect inflation by 0.3-0.4%,” he stated. While the Central Bank does not make exchange rate forecasts, it monitors exchange rate fluctuations for their inflationary impact. He further mentioned that, while gold prices do not directly influence inflation, changes in currency inflows from gold exports could affect exchange rates.

Looking ahead, Nurmuratov projected that gold prices may stabilize at slightly lower levels next year, though significant price drops are not expected.

The statement from the Central Bank follows recent reports that remittances to Uzbekistan reached $11.3 billion over the first nine months of the current year, marking a 34.8% increase compared to the same period last year. This inflow of foreign currency plays a crucial role in supporting the country’s economy and mitigating inflationary pressures.