What could Donald Trump’s return mean for U.S.-Uzbekistan relations?

Following Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential election, foreign policy experts have begun to assess the potential implications of his return for Central Asia, especially Uzbekistan. Analysts Shuhrat Rasul, Oybek Sirojov, and Farhod Karimov recently shared insights on the future of U.S.-Uzbekistan relations in an interview with Kun.uz, highlighting both the challenges and opportunities that may lie ahead.

Prior U.S.-Uzbekistan Ties Under Trump

Reflecting on Trump’s previous term, analyst Shuhrat Rasul noted that the former president maintained a favorable relationship with Uzbekistan’s leadership, emphasizing support for the nation’s sovereignty and independence. During that period, then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s visit to Central Asia underlined this commitment, reinforcing Uzbekistan’s strategic importance to the United States.

“Uzbekistan saw consistent support for its independence during Trump’s term,” Shuhrat Rasul remarked. “Given his historical approach, we may not witness drastic changes in U.S.-Uzbekistan relations, but continuity is likely.”

Strategic Shifts in Central Asia

Analyst Oybek Sirojov emphasized that Trump’s leadership style, often characterized as unpredictable, could influence Central Asian geopolitics in complex ways. Trump’s unconventional decision-making approach may lead to pressure on regional powers like Russia. Sirojov suggested Trump might take a firmer stance against Russian expansionism, which could, indirectly, provide Central Asian states with greater security.

"Trump’s ability to counterbalance Russian moves might yield strategic benefits for the region,” Sirojov said. He also pointed out Trump’s inclination towards a more stringent stance against China, which could reshape U.S. influence in Central Asia.

Heightened Focus on China and Afghanistan

The possibility of intensified U.S.-China tensions under Trump was another recurring theme among the experts. Farhod Karimov argued that Trump’s focus might shift from competing with Russia in Central Asia to countering China’s growing influence. He noted China’s active role in Afghanistan and suggested that a Trump administration could prioritize policies to curb Beijing’s ambitions in the region.

“Trump’s return might signify more attention to Afghanistan as a counterpoint to China’s influence, a shift that could benefit Central Asia in a strategic sense,” Karimov explained.

The Afghanistan Factor

During his campaign, Trump frequently criticized the Biden administration’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, labeling it as a “disgrace.” According to Sirojov, Trump may attempt to re-engage with Afghanistan, not through military means, but by using diplomatic influence to stabilize the country and limit extremist threats near Central Asia.

Though Trump’s approach may not involve sending troops back, Sirojov pointed out that he could aim to assert U.S. interests in Afghanistan, creating a buffer that would support regional stability.

Consistency in Core U.S. Foreign Policy

Despite these potential shifts, Karimov believes that U.S. foreign policy in Central Asia is unlikely to undergo radical changes based solely on who holds office. American interests in the region, he explained, remain consistent regardless of party affiliation.

“Whether Democrat or Republican, U.S. foreign policy is largely steady in Central Asia,” Karimov said. “However, Trump’s perspective on China could introduce a new dimension to the region’s geopolitical landscape.”

With Donald Trump’s return, Uzbekistan and its neighbors may need to navigate a complex international environment shaped by intensified U.S.-China competition and recalibrated U.S. priorities in Afghanistan. These developments could present both challenges and opportunities for Uzbekistan as it seeks to assert its sovereignty and protect regional stability.