Housing prices vs. rental costs: How long does it take to afford an apartment in Tashkent?

Between 2019 and 2021, Uzbekistan experienced a sharp increase in housing market activity. However, starting in 2022, the market entered a stabilization phase. Specifically, during 2019-2021, the number of real estate transactions grew by more than 10% annually. In 2022, the growth slowed to 3.8%, and in 2023, it was 5.7%. These figures come from an analysis by the Center for Economic Research and Reforms.

In 2024, the number of registered home purchase and sale transactions fell by 5.8% compared to 2023, totaling 256,600 transactions.

In 2025, efforts to support supply and demand in the housing market are expected to continue. Specifically, the construction of multi-story buildings with a total of 120,000 apartments is planned. To finance housing programs, the state budget is set to allocate 15.5 trillion UZS, while banks will provide an additional 10 trillion UZS.

An analysis of housing price trends from 2022 to 2024 shows that price growth has been slowing over the past two years. For example, while nominal housing prices across the country increased by an average of 23.6% in USD terms in 2022, in 2024, the growth was only 6.2%.

A similar trend can be observed in real price growth. In 2022, real housing prices increased by 14.6%, rising to 18.5% in 2023. However, in 2024, real price growth dropped sharply to just 1% due to the slowdown in nominal price increases.

From January 2022 to December 2024, the average rental price per square meter in Tashkent increased by only 1.2%. The main rise in rental prices was observed in 2022 (25%), after which prices began to decline from 2023 onwards.

By the end of 2024, the average rental price stood at $8.2 per square meter, which is 11.5% lower than in 2023.

As of 2024, housing affordability is relatively better in the regions of Karakalpakstan, Sirdarya, and Kashkadarya (7.3 – 8.4 years), whereas it is lower in Tashkent (14.9 years), Samarkand (13.9 years), and Navoi (11.3 years).

According to estimates, as of January 1, 2025, the cost of an apartment in Tashkent is equivalent to 11.2 years of rent payments. Compared to January 2022, housing prices have risen faster than rental prices, increasing this ratio by 3.65 years. In other words, during this period, renting has become a more favorable option than buying.

The rental yield in Tashkent is higher than in some other capital cities. As of December 2024, the rental yield in USD terms stood at 9%. This is higher than the average interest rate on foreign currency deposits (5.8%) but lower than the interest rate on UZS deposits converted into USD (17.7%).